These 20 Housing Markets are Cooling Off in 2021

After a record-breaking year in U.S. real estate history, housing markets in certain cities are coming back down to earth in 2021.

Real estate markets across the country have had a remarkable past year. The pandemic pushed many prospective home-buyers into the market, ratcheting up demand and sale prices: on average, U.S. cities have experienced a 5.43 percent increase in home sale prices, according to Insurify’s analysis of cities with the highest home sale prices during the pandemic. Competition to land a house has been incredibly high, leaving many buyers on the market struggling to keep up.

While many real estate markets are still booming nationwide, some regions are seeing a recent slowdown in home sales. According to Forbes, as inventory has slowly increased in certain areas previously saddled with intense pandemic demand, home prices have leveled off in response, making the market less competitive than earlier this year. This may come as good news for prospective buyers hoping to enter a market with more breathing room and time to make bids. To identify the metropolitan regions with real estate markets that have cooled off the most in recent months, the research team at Insurify looked to housing market data from Realtor.com.

An icon map showing 20 cities where the real estate market is returning to pre-pandemic levels in 2021.

Insights

  • National averages. Insurify’s analysts evaluated cities on the pace of their real estate markets in 2021 using factors including year-over-year median listing price, days on the market, and the number of price-reduced listings. Cities received a Real Estate Trajectory score based on the pace and competitiveness of their real estate markets, earning higher scores for a faster pace. The average Real Estate Trajectory score across 100 of the most populous metropolitan areas is 45.0 out of 100. The average year-over-year percent change in median listing price is 6.72 percent. The average percent change in median days on the market and the number of price-reduced listings is -40.32 percent and -35.26 percent, respectively.
  • Leveling off from the Midwest to the East coast. The twenty cities whose real estate markets are cooling off the most in 2021 span from the Midwest, to the South, to all the way up in New England. The West Coast and Southwestern regions of the U.S. are not represented in the rankings.
  • Not a crash, but an expected cool down. While many real estate markets across the nation are slowing down, these recent patterns are not necessarily cause for concern over a market crash. Rather, industry experts are suggesting that this return to pre-pandemic levels is a normal cyclical result, given the record-breaking industry skyrocket from the previous year. Cities whose real estate markets are cooling off in 2021 are not necessarily stagnating, but instead returning to a more normal state.

Methodology

The data scientists at Insurify, a site to compare homeowners insurance, referred to housing market data from Realtor.com to identify the cities whose real estate markets are cooling down the most over the past year. Researchers rated the 100 most populous metropolitan areas across the United States based on a composite score of factors including median listing price, days on the market, and the number of price-reduced listings from summer 2020 to summer 2021.

Realtor.com provides weekly data on these measures across multiple geographic levels in the United States. To calculate the Real Estate Trajectory score, Insurify’s data scientists took the average year-over-year percentage change in median listing price, days on the market, and price-reduced listings from all weeks between May and August 2021 for all 100 cities in the analysis. These values were used to create a proprietary composite score for each city, where a higher score indicates a continuous upward real estate market trajectory and a lower score indicates that the market is slowing down. 

Cities scored lower for showing patterns of reduced median listing prices, increased days on the market, and greater price-reduced listings. The cities with the lowest Real Estate Trajectory scores were identified as having leveled off the most in 2021.

Housing Markets Cooling Off in 2021

20. Providence-Warwick, RI-MA

  • Real Estate Trajectory Score: 29.71 out of 100
  • Decrease in median listing price 2020-2021: -0.96%
  • Change in median days on market: -47.85%
  • Change in price reduced count: -37.29%

19. Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI

  • Real Estate Trajectory Score: 29.70 out of 100
  • Decrease in median listing price 2020-2021: -1.78%
  • Change in median days on market: -23.36%
  • Change in price reduced count: -27.02%

18. Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV

  • Real Estate Trajectory Score: 29.69 out of 100
  • Decrease in median listing price 2020-2021: -1.79%
  • Change in median days on market: -16.40%
  • Change in price reduced count: +11.01%

17. Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA

  • Real Estate Trajectory Score: 29.58 out of 100
  • Decrease in median listing price 2020-2021: -1.85%
  • Change in median days on market: -12.18%
  • Change in price reduced count: -2.13%

16. Rochester, NY

  • Real Estate Trajectory Score: 26.67 out of 100
  • Decrease in median listing price 2020-2021: -3.47%
  • Change in median days on market: -56.91%
  • Change in price reduced count: -36.65%

15. Jackson, MS

  • Real Estate Trajectory Score: 25.58 out of 100
  • Decrease in median listing price 2020-2021: -4.07%
  • Change in median days on market: -44.18%
  • Change in price reduced count: -49.00%

14. Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC

  • Real Estate Trajectory Score: 25.43 out of 100
  • Decrease in median listing price 2020-2021: -4.16%
  • Change in median days on market: -51.06%
  • Change in price reduced count: -22.93%

13. Cleveland-Elyria, OH

  • Real Estate Trajectory Score: 24.86 out of 100
  • Decrease in median listing price 2020-2021: -4.48%
  • Change in median days on market: -36.36%
  • Change in price reduced count: -21.62%

12. Toledo, OH

  • Real Estate Trajectory Score: 24.05 out of 100
  • Decrease in median listing price 2020-2021: -4.93%
  • Change in median days on market: -41.27%
  • Change in price reduced count: -25.35%

11. Kansas City, MO-KS

  • Real Estate Trajectory Score: 24.04 out of 100
  • Decrease in median listing price 2020-2021: -4.93%
  • Change in median days on market: -32.80%
  • Change in price reduced count: -27.86%

10. Louisville-Jefferson County, KY-IN

  • Real Estate Trajectory Score: 23.67 out of 100
  • Decrease in median listing price 2020-2021: -5.14%
  • Change in median days on market: -48.30%
  • Change in price reduced count: -24.66%

9. Omaha-Council Bluffs, NE-IA

  • Real Estate Trajectory Score: 21.12 out of 100
  • Decrease in median listing price 2020-2021: -6.55%
  • Change in median days on market: -25.33%
  • Change in price reduced count: -33.98%

8. Tulsa, OK

  • Real Estate Trajectory Score: 20.85 out of 100
  • Decrease in median listing price 2020-2021: -6.70%
  • Change in median days on market: -27.76%
  • Change in price reduced count: -37.43%

7. Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN

  • Real Estate Trajectory Score: 20.57 out of 100
  • Decrease in median listing price 2020-2021: -6.86%
  • Change in median days on market: -31.55%
  • Change in price reduced count: -40.91%

6. Memphis, TN-MS-AR

  • Real Estate Trajectory Score: 20.45 out of 100
  • Decrease in median listing price 2020-2021: -6.93%
  • Change in median days on market: -33.38%
  • Change in price reduced count: -37.39%

5. Wichita, KS

  • Real Estate Trajectory Score: 19.81 out of 100
  • Decrease in median listing price 2020-2021: -7.28%
  • Change in median days on market: -30.13%
  • Change in price reduced count: -25.52%

4. Columbus, OH

  • Real Estate Trajectory Score: 19.51 out of 100
  • Decrease in median listing price 2020-2021: -7.44%
  • Change in median days on market: -63.63%
  • Change in price reduced count: -18.51%

3. Greensboro-High Point, NC

  • Real Estate Trajectory Score:  11.75 out of 100
  • Decrease in median listing price 2020-2021: -11.76%
  • Change in median days on market: -39.31%
  • Change in price reduced count: -45.61%

2. Winston-Salem, NC

  • Real Estate Trajectory Score: 10.66 out of 100
  • Decrease in median listing price 2020-2021: -12.36%
  • Change in median days on market: -42.77%
  • Change in price reduced count: -44.72%

1. Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI

  • Real Estate Trajectory Score: 1.64 out of 100
  • Decrease in median listing price 2020-2021: -17.38% 
  • Change in median days on market: -34.66%
  • Change in price reduced count: -5.14%

If you have any questions or comments about this article or would like to request the data, please contact insights@insurify.com.

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